Wednesday, April 2, 2008 at 1:01am
Mugabe's farewell?
Column: Roll Down Like Water
Reports today suggest that Robert Mugabe, the man who has led Zimbabwe for the past 28 years, may be willing to step down in the face of an electoral defeat in the country's presidential and parliamentary elections last Saturday. While the transition of power to opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai remains unconfirmed at the time of this writing, reports indicate that Tsvangirai has met with the Zimbabwean military, central intelligence organization and police.
Reports also indicate that senior officials in Mugabe's government are preparing to announce their departure from government.
This is a critical moment in one of the continent's longest-running disputes. After Ian Smith declared Rhodesia's (as it was then called) independence from the United Kingdom in 1965, the country descended into civil conflict. Mugabe led the Marxist opposition to Smith's white leadership of Rhodesia, and succeeded in gaining control of the newly named Zimbabwe in 1980.
From that time forward, Mugabe instilled sweeping reforms of the Zimbabwean government of economy, most controversially by stripping whites of their land ownership and distributing the land to his political allies.
Opponents to Mugabe have criticized the country's gross economic deterioration since independence in 1980 and harsh political repression. Opponents have been jailed, beaten and harassed, and elections have routinely been rigged. So the mere fact that Tsvangirai and his "Movement for Democratic Change" (MDC) can claim to have won elections without clear government reprisals demonstrates the erosion of support Mugabe has experienced over time.
The situation in Zimbabwe is severe, and one feels great sympathy for the impossible task that will face Tsvangirai, should he be allowed to assume the presidency. Unemployment rests at 80 percent, and the economy suffers a 100,000 percent annual inflation rate. Life expectancy hovers at 41 for men and 39 for women, and close to 25 percent of the population is HIV positive.
With the transition in government comes the hope for renewed international efforts to develop the abjectly poor country (per capita GDP is a paltry $500 per year). Both the United States and the European Union have placed sanctions on Zimbabwe in an effort to compel Mugabe to loosen his tyrannical control on the population and reverse his policy of discriminating against white Zimbabweans. Both Washington and Brussels have expressed their desire to help Zimbabwe battle its economic and social crises. Many analysts thought this would only come following Mugabe's death.
It looks like the time to make good on America's and Europe's promises may come sooner than expected. Quick, decisive action is needed. The transition - if it actually occurs - will be destabilizing for the country as a whole as people come to grips with the horror of the past three decades. Tsvangirai will need strong Western support to unite Zimbabwe and begin to rebuild the devastated country. At the same time, Zimbabweans overall will need to begin the process of deciding on their way forward.
While every aspect of society seems to be in crisis at present, what areas will the government prioritize? It is clear that inflation must come under control, and healthcare and job formation are essential. Working out a realistic plan for humanitarian assistance in the short run and economic development over the long run will be the important tasks for the new government.
It looks to be a good week for Zimbabwe - the country's long struggle for true independence may finally be realized. While we should all celebrate this development, we should remain mindful of the very difficult road ahead for this African nation and be more proactive than we have been in the past to provide the support this country desperately needs.
— — —
Dr. Rebecca Johnson is an assistant professor at American University's School of International Service in Washington, D.C., and is currently pursuing a masters of divinity at Wesley Theological Seminary. Visit her website thatstarfish.com, or send an email to {email becky@thatstarfish.com}becky@thatstarfish.com{/email}. © Copyright 2008 by Rebecca Johnson.
Reports also indicate that senior officials in Mugabe's government are preparing to announce their departure from government.
This is a critical moment in one of the continent's longest-running disputes. After Ian Smith declared Rhodesia's (as it was then called) independence from the United Kingdom in 1965, the country descended into civil conflict. Mugabe led the Marxist opposition to Smith's white leadership of Rhodesia, and succeeded in gaining control of the newly named Zimbabwe in 1980.
From that time forward, Mugabe instilled sweeping reforms of the Zimbabwean government of economy, most controversially by stripping whites of their land ownership and distributing the land to his political allies.
Opponents to Mugabe have criticized the country's gross economic deterioration since independence in 1980 and harsh political repression. Opponents have been jailed, beaten and harassed, and elections have routinely been rigged. So the mere fact that Tsvangirai and his "Movement for Democratic Change" (MDC) can claim to have won elections without clear government reprisals demonstrates the erosion of support Mugabe has experienced over time.
The situation in Zimbabwe is severe, and one feels great sympathy for the impossible task that will face Tsvangirai, should he be allowed to assume the presidency. Unemployment rests at 80 percent, and the economy suffers a 100,000 percent annual inflation rate. Life expectancy hovers at 41 for men and 39 for women, and close to 25 percent of the population is HIV positive.
With the transition in government comes the hope for renewed international efforts to develop the abjectly poor country (per capita GDP is a paltry $500 per year). Both the United States and the European Union have placed sanctions on Zimbabwe in an effort to compel Mugabe to loosen his tyrannical control on the population and reverse his policy of discriminating against white Zimbabweans. Both Washington and Brussels have expressed their desire to help Zimbabwe battle its economic and social crises. Many analysts thought this would only come following Mugabe's death.
It looks like the time to make good on America's and Europe's promises may come sooner than expected. Quick, decisive action is needed. The transition - if it actually occurs - will be destabilizing for the country as a whole as people come to grips with the horror of the past three decades. Tsvangirai will need strong Western support to unite Zimbabwe and begin to rebuild the devastated country. At the same time, Zimbabweans overall will need to begin the process of deciding on their way forward.
While every aspect of society seems to be in crisis at present, what areas will the government prioritize? It is clear that inflation must come under control, and healthcare and job formation are essential. Working out a realistic plan for humanitarian assistance in the short run and economic development over the long run will be the important tasks for the new government.
It looks to be a good week for Zimbabwe - the country's long struggle for true independence may finally be realized. While we should all celebrate this development, we should remain mindful of the very difficult road ahead for this African nation and be more proactive than we have been in the past to provide the support this country desperately needs.
— — —
Dr. Rebecca Johnson is an assistant professor at American University's School of International Service in Washington, D.C., and is currently pursuing a masters of divinity at Wesley Theological Seminary. Visit her website thatstarfish.com, or send an email to {email becky@thatstarfish.com}becky@thatstarfish.com{/email}. © Copyright 2008 by Rebecca Johnson.